U.S. Outlook: Have U.S. and global growth already peaked?

Scott Anderson
Posted by Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

I am seeing growing evidence in the daily economic indicators that U.S. and global growth may have already peaked.

Graph showing economic surprise index in declineThat is not to say Q2 growth won’t accelerate from moribund Q1 rates.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on April 13.

Key observations:
  • Citigroup’s G10 economic surprise index continues to deteriorate and turned net negative for the first time since last June.
  • The slowdown is particularly pronounced in the Eurozone, where industrial production has declined for three consecutive months for the first time since 2012.
  • If U.S. and global growth was about to gallop higher in the months ahead, why haven’t commodity futures prices budged?
  • The 2 year/10 year Treasury bond yield spread shrank to an expansion-low 47 basis points this week.

Read my full report.

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