U.S. Outlook: Keeping next week’s Q1 GDP report in perspective

Scott Anderson
Posted by Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Over the last three quarters, the U.S. economy and real GDP have been on a sprint, the latter rising at an annual average 3.06%.

Closeup of a woman's arm using gas pump to fill her silver car on a cold day.So what do we expect to see from next week’s advanced Q1 GDP report when it is released on Friday?

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on April 20.

Key observations:
  • Since WTI oil prices bottomed in January 2016 at $39.56 per barrel and then icnreased more than 70% off those lows through yesterday, U.S. GDP growth has rebounded to a respectable 2.6% year-on-year.
  • The U.S. economy has finally moved back to its potential GDP level as estimated by the Congressional Budget Office, raising the risk that further above-trend growth may only fuel rising inflationary pressures from here.
  • We are forecasting a below-consensus 1.7% annualized increase in GDP for the first quarter, down from 2.9% in Q4.
  • Growth is expected to rebound back to 2.6% in the second quarter as consumer spending bounces back and government spending ramps up.

Read my full report.


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  • Anonymous says:

    Once again Trump is proven correct while the “smart people are shown to be morons. Trump: We”re going to get 3% GDP growth Smart People: It”s crazy to think you can have 3% GDP. What a dummy! Q4: GDP grows 2.9% Trump: Manufacturing jobs will come back Smart People: Manufacturing jobs are never coming back. What a dummy!! 196K net new manufacturing jobs created in 2017 Trump: We can win a trade war with China Smart People: You can”t win a trade war with China. What a dummy! China surrenders in the trade war

    Reply | 1 year ago

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