U.S. Outlook: Reading the tea leaves from the Loan Officer Survey
The Federal Reserve released results from the April Senor Loan Officers Survey on Bank Lending Practices, which tracks changes in bank credit standards and terms and demand for bank loans from businesses and consumers of the last three months.
What stood out to us was continued broad-based weakness in loan demand from both businesses and households.
For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on May 11.Key observations:
- Banks reported that demand for commercial & industrial and commercial real estate loans weakened in the first quarter.
- Banks also reported weaker demand for auto loans, credit cards, and most categories of residential real estate loans.
- There is no evidence yet of a business investment or consumer spending surge coming from the U.S. banking industry.
- Given the Federal Reserve’s determination to continue raising short-term interest rates into 2019, I don’t see bank lending conditions materially improving from here.