U.S. Outlook: Strong consumer-led rebound in Q2 GDP anticipated

Scott Anderson
Posted by Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Robust real GDP growth above 4% is expected in the second quarter of this year, driven by a sharp rebound in real consumer spending.

Young, smiling man wearing an apron and holding a pen while sitting at a table and talking to a business woman.However, recently released data suggest that spending may cool a bit in the quarters ahead.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on June 15.

Key observations:
  • Home price growth uncertainty increased to its highest level in a year, suggesting rising mortgage rates are becoming a bigger concern for consumers.
  • The outlook for credit, which supports consumer spending, also worsened in May.
  • The data revealed that 12.8% of respondents expect their financial situation to worsen over the next year, up from 11% in April.
  • The Fed is expected to raise interest rates a total of four times this year and once more next year, all in 25-basis-point increments.

Read my full report.


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