U.S. Outlook: Q2 GDP is solid; trade a growing downside risk

Scott Anderson
Posted by Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Real GDP increased at a slower annual rate of 2.0% in the first quarter of 2018, according to the third estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

A container ship in the harbor in AsiaNow that we have the final Q1 GDP data in hand, what does it mean for the U.S. outlook going forward?

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on June 29.

Key observations:
  • The 2.0% Q1 growth rate is a vast improvement over the U.S. economy’s performance in the first quarter of 2016 and 2017, when GDP grew 0.6% and 1.2%, respectively.
  • Recent stronger-than-expected economic data has caused us to revise up our forecast for Q2 GDP growth to a sizzing 4.4%.
  • Our forecast calls for real GDP growth to moderate to 2.7% for the balance of 2018.
  • What could go wrong with this Goldilocks forecast, you ask? A full-blown multilateral trade war.


Read my full report.


Reminder: All comments are moderated prior to publication and must follow our Community Guidelines.

Submit an Idea

[contact-form-7 id="32" title="Share An Idea"]

You are leaving the Bank of the West Change Matters site. Please be aware: The website you are about to enter is not operated by Bank of the West. Bank of the West does not endorse the content of this website and makes no warranty as to the accuracy of content or functionality of this website. The privacy and security policies of the site may differ from those practiced by Bank of the West. To proceed to this website, click OK, or hit Cancel to remain on the Bank of the West Change Matters site.