U.S. Outlook: Bracing for a hawkish FOMC meeting

Scott Anderson
Posted by Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

The U.S. economy is in a good place right now.

Upscale shopping center with empty parking spaces in front.Second quarter’s GDP growth estimate looks like it will be revised up to around 4.4% next week, from 4.2% and an initial reading of 4.1%.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Sept. 21.

Key observations:
  • There are growing signs of moderation in some U.S. economic indicators, such as home sales and prices, but business sentiment and consumer confidence remain high.
  • We expect a more upbeat assessment of current economic conditions from the FOMC statement and from Powell’s press conference comments.
  • There is nothing to stop the FOMC from raising the fed funds target range once more at this meeting (next week) and signaling more rate hikes ahead. We think the next one will happen in December.

Read my full report.

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