U.S. Outlook: Estimating the economic impact of the market decline

Scott Anderson
Posted by Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Since Trump’s election in 2016 through last September, U.S. equity markets were on a one-way trip to the moon.Economic crisis - Stock market graphs and charts - Financial and business background

U.S. total stock market capitalization swelled by $9.2 trillion as financial markets factored in both substantial corporate tax cuts and increased government spending into their after-tax earnings calculations. But equity markets have been on a roller coaster ride since hitting record-high levels at the end of September.

For more on this, see highlights from my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Jan. 11.

Key observations:
  •  Nearly half of stock market gains accumulated over the last two years have been wiped out in three short months.
  •  Further declines in consumer confidence can be expected as the reality of consumers’ lost wealth slowly sinks in.
  •  Real consumer spending growth in 2019 could slow to between 0.5% and 1.5% Q4/Q4.

Read my full report.

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