U.S. Outlook: Buckle up, it’s going to get bumpy

Scott Anderson
Posted by Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

U.S. President Donald Trump’s tweets that he is raising tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese imports from 10% to 25% because the Chinese “broke the deal” triggered a bout of global stock and bond market volatility not seen since December.

Economic crisis - Stock market graphs and charts - Financial and business background

We interpret this week’s market tremors as an early warning of a tougher US and global economic environment ahead.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on May 10.

Key observations:

  • Raising tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports from 10% to 25% nearly doubles the negative economic impact on both the U.S. and China from today’s tariff levels.
  • A 2020 economic recession is not inevitable, but the window for the Fed to achieve a soft landing is closing quickly.
  • Signs point to a U.S. consumer spending slowdown ahead.

Read my full report.

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