U.S. Outlook: Dark clouds loom over the global economy
Bad news about the global economy seems to be piling up.
Last week the OECD cut its 2019 global growth estimate to only 3.2% from 3.3% forecast just two months ago. I suspect that most economists will be getting out their pencils to lower global economic growth estimates for this year and next. Economic surprises have remained uniformly negative across most of the world through the middle of May, implying that economic indicators are still falling well short of economists’ diminishing expectations.
For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on May 24.
• Manufacturing segments in two-thirds of major economies either at threshold between expansion and contraction or in decline.
• U.S. stocks are vulnerable to protracted China trade war.
• Recent readings of both U.S. manufacturing and services sectors bode ill for future GDP growth.
Read the full report.