U.S. Outlook: Retail sales boost our Q2 GDP forecast
U.S. economic doomsayers will be less boisterous after this week’s data. A robust May retail sales report and upwardly revised sales for March and April should remind investors and analysts there are still major sectors of the U.S. economy that are holding up quite well, despite the bond market’s doom and gloom and calls for imminent and substantial rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.
For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on June 14.Key observations:
- Solid job market and consumer confidence continue to drive gains in retail spending.
- Strength in May retail sales and upward revisions to the prior two months have prompted an increase in our second quarter GDP growth forecast.
- There will be weaker consumer spending and GDP growth ahead if the trade war with China continues to escalate.
Read my full report.