Evidence of a July U.S. Slowdown Emerging

Scott Anderson
Posted by Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Last week we wrote about dark clouds building on the economic horizon as COVID-19 cases have surged in recent weeks.

This week more evidence emerged that the spike in virus cases is indeed sucking the oxygen out of the robust economic recovery we have seen over the past two and a half months.

So far, we can point to a pullback in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in July, a below consensus improvement in the preliminary Markit PMI indexes for July with a service sector still in contraction territory, as well as measurable deterioration in more timely daily data on OpenTable restaurant reservations, and TSA checkpoint travelers.

But perhaps the best evidence to date that an economic slowdown is underway is the larger than expected jump in initial jobless claims for the week of July 18th.

To learn more about the signs of slowdown emerging in the U.S. economy, and what that means for the labor market outlook, check out this week’s U.S. Outlook Report.


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