Author: Scott Anderson

Treasury Yields Crash – Ignoring Strong Jobs Report

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

The coronavirus itself is a serious threat to both U.S. and global economic expansion.

It is both a supply and demand shock to global growth as producers face supply-chain disruptions and service and retail businesses see a sharp drop in consumer demand as more and more people self-isolate to protect themselves from the rapidly spreading infection. But the virus and the global economic shock it is creating are also starting to touch off financial market contagion and volatility, the likes of which we haven’t seen since the global financial crisis of 2007 and 2008.

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Panic Hits Wall Street

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Financial markets have gone from irrational exuberance over the last four months to panic in the short space of a week and a half.

At the time of this writing the U.S. equity market has lost about 15% of its value from the record highs reached just nine days ago and has drop about 13% in the last five trading days. To give you a sense of the panic in the air around the coronaviruss’ potential impacts on the global economy and corporate profits, one only needs to glance at the VIX index.

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Bulls Get Corralled As Coronavirus Hits Global Economy

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

A brief period of global economic and financial market optimism over the past four months is quickly going dormant as the global economic impact of the Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) comes into greater focus.

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Retail Sales OK but Manufacturing Slump Continues

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Consumers continued to grow their spending in January in line with our forecasts. January’s advanced retail sales report showed a 0.3% gain on the month with retail sales excluding autos also increasing 0.3%. There was a small downward revision in December’s headline retail sales gain to 0.2% from 0.3% as originally reported.

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