U.S. Outlook: Retail sales boost our Q2 GDP forecast

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

U.S. economic doomsayers will be less boisterous after this week’s data. A robust May retail sales report and upwardly revised sales for March and April should remind investors and analysts there are still major sectors of the U.S. economy that are holding up quite well, despite the bond market’s doom and gloom and calls for imminent and substantial rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.

Busy, crowded street scene in Times Square, NYC

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on June 14.

Key observations:
  • Solid job market and consumer confidence continue to drive gains in retail spending.
  • Strength in May retail sales and upward revisions to the prior two months have prompted an increase in our second quarter GDP growth forecast.
  • There will be weaker consumer spending and GDP growth ahead if the trade war with China continues to escalate.

Read my full report.

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U.S. Outlook: A warning from the jobs report

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Hiring faded across the board in May. This is not just a one-off hiccup in the data, but part of a broader more prolonged pattern of labor market softening.

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Instant Analysis: Fed Chair Powell open to reducing rates

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell says that the Fed is closely monitoring rising global trade disputes and the potential fallout on the U.S. economy.

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U.S. Outlook: When giants fight

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

The impact of the trade war escalation is clearly visible in our lowered forecasts for U.S. GDP growth, interest rates and inflation. We have cut our near‐term consumer inflation forecasts as oil, energy, and metals prices plunge and the dollar strengthens on flight‐to‐safety capital flows.

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U.S. Outlook: Dark clouds loom over the global economy

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
dark-clouds-manufacturing-outlook

Bad news about the global economy seems to be piling up. Last week the OECD cut its 2019 global growth estimate to only 3.2% from 3.3% forecast just two months ago.

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