Powerful Cross Currents Creating Some Chop

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Economic forecasting, never an activity for the faint of heart, is particularly tricky these days given the collision of renewed business lockdowns against unprecedented, but waning, fiscal and monetary stimulus designed to keep asset prices supported and consumers and businesses solvent long enough to outlast this coronavirus pandemic.

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V-Shaped Employment Recovery Comes to an End

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

The November employment report wasn’t great, revealing a sharp deceleration in job creation from October’s pace, but it could have been much worse, given the rising coronavirus case counts and renewed business shutdowns rolling once again across many regions, and the delay in additional relief from the Federal government. 

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A Happy Holiday For Retailers?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

A resurgence in coronavirus cases across nearly all states and the weaker-than-expected October retail sales report released earlier this week puts the strength of the upcoming holiday shopping season in doubt.

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Treasury Market Volatility Returns

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

The 10-year Treasury note yield – which is a benchmark for long-term interest rates, including the popular 30-year fixed rate mortgage – was extremely volatile leading up to and following the elections on November 3rd. Now that most of the votes have been tallied, we thought now was an good time to look at what drove the intense volatility of longer-term Treasury rates and what it might tell us, or not tell us, about future interest rates moves.

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