Another Better Than Expected Jobs Report For October

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

The U.S. labor market recovery continued in October at a fairly rapid clip, though the pace of net job creation slowed for the fourth consecutive month to a gain of 638k jobs down from a 672k gain in September.

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Consumers Keep Spending Going Into The Holidays

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

The September consumer spending and income report exceeded economists’ forecasts again.

In real terms, consumer spending increased at a robust 15.9% annualized pace in September, nearly ensuring consumers will continue to increase their spending at a healthy pace over the holidays too. Durable goods spending is up 14.3% from a year ago even as personal services spending has declined 6.5% from a year ago.

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Deteriorating Fundamentals vs. Rising Expectations

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Over the near-term, U.S. economic growth fundamentals look set to deteriorate. Yet U.S. stock prices remain close to record highs and long-term Treasury yields have moved up 10 to 15 basis points in the last week alone on prospects for sizable fiscal stimulus and a new Democratic administration. The markets are clearly trying to look past near-term signs of trouble, while focusing on a brighter 2021. 

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September Retail Sales Come Roaring Back

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Retail sales increased 1.9% in September, a far stronger pace than economists expected, given tens of millions of Americans remain out of work and supplemental unemployment benefits of $600 a week began to disappear at the end of July.

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