Employment Growth Decelerates In July
U.S. non-farm payroll growth in July beat consensus expectations, rising by 1.76 million jobs compared to expectations for 1.48 million. However, this was a sharp deceleration from June’s 4.79 million job gain and May’s 2.725 million increase. This is likely to be the best jobs report we are likely to see for a while and probably exaggerates the health of the U.S. labor market today.
Read More ›Bye Bye Supplemental Unemployment Benefits
We received more confirmation this week that consumer spending bounced back strongly from its April lows. The $1,200 checks that were sent by the Federal Government to individuals certainly helped create the conditions for this reopening spending revival, but I would argue that expanded and supplemented unemployment insurance benefits have been much more targeted and effective in maintaining spending among the most vulnerable households.
Read More ›Evidence of a July U.S. Slowdown Emerging
Last week we wrote about dark clouds building on the economic horizon as COVID-19 cases have surged in recent weeks. This week more evidence emerged that the spike in virus cases is indeed sucking the oxygen out of the robust economic recovery we have seen over the past two and a half months.
Read More ›Dark Clouds Forming on the Horizon
Like a mid-summer thunderstorm approaching from the West, dark clouds are beginning to build on our economic and financial horizon yet again.
It’s still too early to know whether we will be hit by an imminent downpour or not. A last minute economic rescue package in the $1 to $2 trillion dollar range from Congress before the end of July could help keep the storm clouds at bay until the end of the year, but the increasing virus case count is already doing some material damage to the pace of the economic recovery in my opinion.
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