A 2020 Forecast Upgrade Despite December Payroll Miss

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by only 145k jobs in December, a slight undershoot from the consensus forecast of 160k and our own forecast of 170k. This is a sharp deterioration from November’s 256k job gain.

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2020 Economic Outlook

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

What will shape U.S. economic performance in 2020 now that a few significant risks have been reduced?

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California Economic Outlook

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Two girls working in a factory

Job growth in California has been robust lately, especially in the construction and healthcare industries, but can it last in 2020?

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Reducing Downside Tail Risks for 2020

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Gray jigsaw puzzle pieces with a stray piece that has the British flag on it, with the EU logo underneath the puzzle.

For the first time since early 2018 when the U.S.-China Trade War came on the scene and early 2019 when Brexit deadlines came and went, we believe downside tail risks for the U.S. and global economy are measurably easing.

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