U.S. Outlook: Retail sales boost our Q2 GDP forecast

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

U.S. economic doomsayers will be less boisterous after this week’s data. A robust May retail sales report and upwardly revised sales for March and April should remind investors and analysts there are still major sectors of the U.S. economy that are holding up quite well, despite the bond market’s doom and gloom and calls for imminent and substantial rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.

Busy, crowded street scene in Times Square, NYC

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on June 14.

Key observations:
  • Solid job market and consumer confidence continue to drive gains in retail spending.
  • Strength in May retail sales and upward revisions to the prior two months have prompted an increase in our second quarter GDP growth forecast.
  • There will be weaker consumer spending and GDP growth ahead if the trade war with China continues to escalate.

Read my full report.

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Investment Insights: Feeling the squeeze

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy

Stocks continue to recover from a distressing May on increasing dovishness from central bankers and signs of stimulus in China, but tariffs remain a mixed bag. United Technologies and Raytheon have agreed to a merger valued at roughly $90 billion that will create the second-largest U.S. defense-aerospace company after Boeing. Investors apparently aren’t thrilled with the prospect of the combined business as both companies faced notable losses yesterday.

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U.S. Outlook: A warning from the jobs report

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Hiring faded across the board in May. This is not just a one-off hiccup in the data, but part of a broader more prolonged pattern of labor market softening.

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Small business and fast financing options: Pros and cons

Newsroom
Posted by Newsroom
Corporate News

What’s the hardest part about growing a business? Ask a roomful of small business owners and you’ll get a variety of answers, most likely including: recruiting and retaining employees, building company culture, outmaneuvering competitors. But you’ll also probably hear about financing.

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The Double Bottom Line on Tiny Homes: Smaller (carbon) footprint, bigger bang for the buck?

Newsroom
Posted by Newsroom
Corporate News

Tiny houses have hit the big time, especially among younger homebuyers. In fact, more than half of Americans would consider living in a home that’s less than 600 square feet, according to a 2017 study from the National Association of Home Builders.

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