Over the near-term, U.S. economic growth fundamentals look set to deteriorate. Yet U.S. stock prices remain close to record highs and long-term Treasury yields have moved up 10 to 15 basis points in the last week alone on prospects for sizable fiscal stimulus and a new Democratic administration. The markets are clearly trying to look past near-term signs of trouble, while focusing on a brighter 2021.Read More ›
Retail sales increased 1.9% in September, a far stronger pace than economists expected, given tens of millions of Americans remain out of work and supplemental unemployment benefits of $600 a week began to disappear at the end of July.Read More ›
In many ways the consumer is the U.S. economy.
Real consumer spending comprises about 70% of U.S. GDP, so if you can accurately forecast where the consumer is going, you have a pretty good idea the rest of the U.S. economy will follow. Personal consumption expenditures is a broad measure of consumer spending, including spending categories not included in the monthly retail sales reports like spending on services like health care and education.Read More ›
The September jobs reports brought more troubling signs that the labor market rebound that began in earnest in May as furloughed workers returned to work and peaked in June with a one month 4.78 million job gain is rapidly petering out as winter approaches.Read More ›