All Posts Tagged: auto sales

U.S. Outlook: Why the Fed will look past weak Q1 GDP growth

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

U.S. GDP growth sputtered in the first quarter. This was the worst performance from the U.S. economy since the first quarter of 2014.

Graph showing recent rise in business spending growthThe drop in economic growth was driven primarily by a large deceleration in real consumer spending growth, less inventory accumulation, and declines in government spending.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on April 28.

Key observations:
  • The large decline in durable goods spending appears to have been driven by weak vehicle sales, which declined for three consecutive months during the first quarter.
  • I believe part of the weakness in consumer spending in the first quarter was payback for a consumer who probably overdid it in the fourth quarter.
  • Overall price inflation came in somewhat hotter than analysts expected.
  • The next rate hike from the Fed will likely come in June, if second quarter growth evolves as we envision.

Click here to read my full report.

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U.S. Outlook: September bounce intact

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing recent rise in monthly auto sales.

Coming off a weak August, the data we have received so far for September shows economic growth bounced back decisively last month.

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U.S. Outlook: Retail sales slip again in March

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
graph showing trends in personal savings rate over last several years.

March retail sales came in lower than expected, down 0.3%, ending a disappointing first quarter for consumer spending.

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