All Posts Tagged: balance sheet
I’m skeptical that U.S. consumers can keep the slowdown, which is centered in manufacturing and business investment, from seeping into other corners of the economy.
U.S. consumers won’t be able to keep spending at a growth rate of more than 3% in the quarters ahead. We forecast real consumer spending at just below 2% in the second half of 2019 and slipping well below 2% next year, as the risks from the global slowdown, trade wars, tighter financial conditions, and fading fiscal stimulus continue to mount.
For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on June 28.Key observations:
- We can’t count on the U.S. consumer to keep spending at a growth rate of more than 3%
- Monthly job growth will continue to slow in the quarters ahead
- Household balance sheets are fine now but may weaken as home price growth slows
- Average hourly earnings growth remains below real consumer spending growth rates
Read my full report.Read More ›
The FOMC dropped a big hint in today’s FOMC statement that implementation of the Fed’s balance sheet normalization plan will take place “relatively soon.”Read More ›
The summer is just flying by, and that means another FOMC rate decision and statement next week.Read More ›
The FOMC failed to blink in the face of widespread market skepticism about the Fed’s projected fed funds rate path as it increased the fed funds target range by a quarter percentage point today to between 1.0 and 1.25%.Read More ›
There were few surprises in today’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision and statement to hold the fed funds target rate at between 0.50 and 0.75%.Read More ›