All Posts Tagged: balance sheet

U.S. Outlook: Will consumers save the day?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

I’m skeptical that U.S. consumers can keep the slowdown, which is centered in manufacturing and business investment, from seeping into other corners of the economy.

U.S. consumers won’t be able to keep spending at a growth rate of more than 3% in the quarters ahead.  We forecast real consumer spending at just below 2% in the second half of 2019 and slipping well below 2% next year, as the risks from the global slowdown, trade wars, tighter financial conditions, and fading fiscal stimulus continue to mount.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on June 28.

Key observations:
  • We can’t count on the U.S. consumer to keep spending at a growth rate of more than 3%
  • Monthly job growth will continue to slow in the quarters ahead
  • Household balance sheets are fine now but may weaken as home price growth slows
  • Average hourly earnings growth remains below real consumer spending growth rates

Read my full report.

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Instant Analysis: July FOMC statement

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Closeup of intricate window designs on the Federal Reserve building.

The FOMC dropped a big hint in today’s FOMC  statement that implementation of the Fed’s balance sheet normalization plan will take place “relatively soon.” 

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U.S. Outlook: Fed balance sheet reduction is right around the corner

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing trends as a result of Fed balance sheet reduction

The summer is just flying by, and that means another FOMC rate decision and statement next week.

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Instant Analysis: ‘Doves cry’ in the aftermath of the June FOMC statement

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Closeup on the eagle sculpture near top of the Federal Reserve building in Washington.

The FOMC failed to blink in the face of widespread market skepticism about the Fed’s projected fed funds rate path as it increased the fed funds target range by a quarter percentage point today to between 1.0 and 1.25%.

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Instant Analysis: FOMC decision & statement for February

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Federal Reserve at dusk.

There were few surprises in today’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision and statement to hold the fed funds target rate at between 0.50 and 0.75%.

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