All Posts Tagged: bond market

U.S. Outlook: What to expect from next week’s Q1 GDP release

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

The time has finally come. No, I’m not talking about the Mueller Report. I’m talking about the advanced release of Close up on Wall St. street sign, with tourists enjoying the street in summer weather behind it.first quarter GDP.

Just four months into 2019 and we have already had a year’s worth of GDP estimate revisions and sentiment swings.

We started the year with stocks finishing their worst quarter since 2011, and the bond market sending ominous signals of economic calamity ahead. Flash forward to today and stocks are reaching for new record highs — the S&P 500 was just 0.9 percentage points below its September 20 record high as of Thursday’s close.

Yet investor confidence remains in the dumps. An investor confidence index from State Street shows institutional investors on balance are continuing to decrease their long-term allocations to risky assets. As of March, this measure of investor confidence was still well below 2008 levels.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on April 19.

Key observations:
  • The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast for Q1 2019 started at a paltry 0.17%, before surging in recent weeks to 2.8%.
  • We expect the advance estimate of Q1 GDP to be a comfortable 2.6%, even higher than the fourth quarter’s 2.2% performance.
  • About one percentage point of that 2.6% Q1 growth rate is expected to come from an inventory build (0.4 percentage points) and an improvement in the trade deficit (0.6 percentage points). Neither boost is expected to be repeated in the second quarter.

Read my full report.

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Investment Insights: Trump’s trade truce timing

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Small stream of identical, new white cars driving off a large blue cargo ship at port.

While details of any deal have yet to be released, the trade war may be deescalating.

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U.S. Outlook: What’s behind the oil price plunge?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Large, very clean refinery at dawn. No human activity is visible.

Crude oil prices had been generally rising in 2018 before peaking at $76.24 on October 3.

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Investment Insights: ‘Just below’

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Diagonal upward view of Federal Reserve building

Jerome Powell’s lunch presentation and speech Wednesday held those two small but significant words, “just below.”

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Investment Insights: A nightmare on Wall Street

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Male stock brokers conferring about one of many blue screens in the photo showing stock performance data.

The U.S. stock market had one of its most challenging months in more than a decade.

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