All Posts Tagged: bond market

U.S. Outlook: Retail sales boost our Q2 GDP forecast

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

U.S. economic doomsayers will be less boisterous after this week’s data. A robust May retail sales report and upwardly revised sales for March and April should remind investors and analysts there are still major sectors of the U.S. economy that are holding up quite well, despite the bond market’s doom and gloom and calls for imminent and substantial rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.

Busy, crowded street scene in Times Square, NYC

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on June 14.

Key observations:
  • Solid job market and consumer confidence continue to drive gains in retail spending.
  • Strength in May retail sales and upward revisions to the prior two months have prompted an increase in our second quarter GDP growth forecast.
  • There will be weaker consumer spending and GDP growth ahead if the trade war with China continues to escalate.

Read my full report.

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U.S. Outlook: When giants fight

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

The impact of the trade war escalation is clearly visible in our lowered forecasts for U.S. GDP growth, interest rates and inflation. We have cut our near‐term consumer inflation forecasts as oil, energy, and metals prices plunge and the dollar strengthens on flight‐to‐safety capital flows.

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U.S. Outlook: What to expect from next week’s Q1 GDP release

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Close up on Wall St. street sign, with tourists enjoying the street in summer weather behind it.

What to expect from first quarter GDP growth? Scott Anderson offers an analysis in the U.S. Outlook.

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Investment Insights: Trump’s trade truce timing

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Small stream of identical, new white cars driving off a large blue cargo ship at port.

While details of any deal have yet to be released, the trade war may be deescalating.

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U.S. Outlook: What’s behind the oil price plunge?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Large, very clean refinery at dawn. No human activity is visible.

Crude oil prices had been generally rising in 2018 before peaking at $76.24 on October 3.

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