All Posts Tagged: commodities
When giants fight, folks get trampled. A prolonged and escalating U.S. trade war with China is now our baseline view and no longer a downside risk to our outlook.
The impact of the trade war escalation is clearly visible in our lowered forecasts for U.S. GDP growth, interest rates, and inflation. We have cut our near‐term consumer inflation forecasts as oil, energy, and metals prices plunge and the U.S. dollar strengthens on flight‐to‐safety capital flows.
For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on May 31.Key observations:
- Escalating U.S.-China trade war is now our base case and no longer just a risk.
- U.S. GDP growth forecast for 2019 has been cut to 2.3% from 2.5%.
- Our Fed rate cut forecast has been moved forward, and the Fed may lower rates as early as September.
Read my full report.Read More ›
2018 was a difficult year for financial markets with most major asset classes ending the year in the red.Read More ›
There are still few details on the future of commerce between Britain and the rest of the European Union. There is a lot that could happen.Read More ›
The second quarter turned out to be a strong period for alternatives as commodities rallied on production cuts, while real estate and hedge funds rose modestly.Read More ›