All Posts Tagged: commodities

U.S. Outlook: When giants fight

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

When giants fight, folks get trampled. A prolonged and escalating U.S. trade war with China is now our baseline view and no longer a downside risk to our outlook.

The impact of the trade war escalation is clearly visible in our lowered forecasts for U.S. GDP growth, interest rates, and inflation. We have cut our near‐term consumer inflation forecasts as oil, energy, and metals prices plunge and the U.S. dollar strengthens on flight‐to‐safety capital flows.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on May 31.

Key observations:
  • Escalating U.S.-China trade war is now our base case and no longer just a risk.
  • U.S. GDP growth forecast for 2019 has been cut to 2.3% from 2.5%.
  • Our Fed rate cut forecast has been moved forward, and the Fed may lower rates as early as September.

Read my full report.

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Oh, what a year it’s been: Excerpts from our 2018 year-end review

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy

2018 was a difficult year for financial markets with most major asset classes ending the year in the red.

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Investment Insights: The grass may be greener on the other side of Brexit

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Gray jigsaw puzzle pieces with a stray piece that has the British flag on it, with the EU logo underneath the puzzle.

There are still few details on the future of commerce between Britain and the rest of the European Union. There is a lot that could happen.

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Investment Insights: Excerpts from our Q2 report

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
London plaza outside Thomson Reuters building with scrolling stock ticker and people walking in front.

The second quarter turned out to be a strong period for alternatives as commodities rallied on production cuts, while real estate and hedge funds rose modestly.

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Investment Insights: Excerpts from our May report

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
View looking upward between several skyscrapers extending into a sunny sky.

You may not have heard about it until now, but April was a fantastic month for commodities.

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