All Posts Tagged: consumer credit

U.S. Outlook: A softer start to the year

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

After two consecutive quarters of more than 3.0% real GDP growth in 2017, you could be forgiven for starting to believe the hype of the administration’s 3.0 or 4.0% annual growth forecasts for the coming years.

Two signs in store window for sales - 50% and 70% - with reflection of shoppers faintly visible.Unfortunately, the period of 3% GDP growth appears to already be in our rear-view mirror.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Feb. 16.

Key observations:
  • After a surge in spending in September, October, and November, consumers have grown stingy in December and January.
  • Bad weather in January could have contributed to the weakness in sales that month, but that isn’t the whole story, in our opinion.
  • In all fairness, we are probably not seeing the impact of the personal tax cuts passed in December in these retail sales numbers.
  • We’ve revised our real GDP forecast for the first quarter of 2018 down to 2.1%.

 

Read my full report.

 

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U.S. Outlook: Consumer credit spigot remains open

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing the dramatic rise in student loan debt in last 15 years

Solid gains in consumer credit growth are an integral part of our sanguine outlook for near-term consumer spending.

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Numbers Count: Why 43 is such an important number

Chad Royle
Posted by Chad Royle
Mortgage Banking
Hands of man shopping online with a digital tablet

When you go to buy a home or refinance, lenders generally want you to hold your debt-to-income ratio below 43%.

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U.S. Outlook: Where is the consumer spending?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing quarterly wage shifts

We’re seeing more angst around the strength of U.S. consumer spending in the second quarter.

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