All Posts Tagged: consumer spending

U.S. Outlook: Retail sales boost our Q2 GDP forecast

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

U.S. economic doomsayers will be less boisterous after this week’s data. A robust May retail sales report and upwardly revised sales for March and April should remind investors and analysts there are still major sectors of the U.S. economy that are holding up quite well, despite the bond market’s doom and gloom and calls for imminent and substantial rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.

Busy, crowded street scene in Times Square, NYC

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on June 14.

Key observations:
  • Solid job market and consumer confidence continue to drive gains in retail spending.
  • Strength in May retail sales and upward revisions to the prior two months have prompted an increase in our second quarter GDP growth forecast.
  • There will be weaker consumer spending and GDP growth ahead if the trade war with China continues to escalate.

Read my full report.

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U.S. Outlook: A warning from the jobs report

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Hiring faded across the board in May. This is not just a one-off hiccup in the data, but part of a broader more prolonged pattern of labor market softening.

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U.S. Outlook: Mixed signals and caution

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

What are the near-term prospects for the U.S. economy? Is the glass half-full or half-empty? It’s a tough call.
Right now both answers probably are correct.

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U.S. Outlook: Buckle up, it’s going to get bumpy

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Economic crisis - Stock market graphs and charts - Financial and business background

Trump’s additional tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese imports nearly doubles the negative economic impact on both the U.S. and China.

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U.S. Outlook: Job growth bounces back in March

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Job growth may have bounced back in March, but our chief economist cautions against an exuberant celebration of the positive numbers. Find out why in his U.S. Outlook

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