All Posts Tagged: deflation

U.S. Outlook: Low inflation gets the Fed’s attention

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

What really got the Fed to hold off on raising interest rates in September was the recent behavior and near-term outlook for U.S. inflation.

Graph showing recent drop in producer prices.The Fed looked past an improving U.S. labor market to refocus its attention on the inflation side of its dual mandate.

For more on this and other developments this week, see my full report. Highlights are outlined below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook report, delivered on Sept. 18.

Key observations:
  • Producer prices are the weakest we have seen since 2009. Producer price declines often lead to weaker consumer inflation down the road.
  • It’s not just energy prices that are driving the declines. Even producer food prices are dropping.
  • We have cut our own inflation forecasts as a result of these recent trends.
  • Until the Fed sees signs that energy and commodity prices are stabilizing, it could remain in a holding pattern.
Click here to read my full report. Read More ›

U.S. Outlook: Deflation arrives in the United States

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing drop in producer prices.

With the January price data now coming in, the U.S. price deflation is as dramatic as I thought.

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U.S. Outlook: U.S. deflation not the end of the world

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing sectors of the US economy where deflation is an issue.

Plenty of doomsday articles are being written about deflation these days, but will the U.S. have the same difficulty as Europe?

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U.S. Outlook: Deflation fight moves overseas

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Chart showing US dollar-to-euro price ratios over recent years.

Global central banks from Europe, Canada, Peru, Switzerland, Denmark, and India all made moves this month to loosen monetary policy and head off economic and deflation risks.

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U.S. Outlook: The slog continues

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Bar graph showing monthly retails sales in 2014, with red dips in Jan and Dec.

After all the recent good economic news in recent weeks, the retail sales decline in December was a disappointment.

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