All Posts Tagged: durable goods

U.S. Outlook: Mixed signals and caution

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

What are the near-term prospects for the U.S. economy? Is the glass half-full or half-empty? It’s a tough call.

Right now both answers probably are correct. We believe the U.S. economy will grow at around 1.7% annualized in the second quarter.

This is significantly lower than the first quarter’s 3.2% pace, but still slightly above the U.S. economy’s potential growth rate of around 1.6%. Indeed, in many respects, the U.S. economic expansion continues to trundle along, with few signs of abating.

Real consumer spending growth is expected to rebound to a respectable 2.6% annualized this quarter, but we do not see a return to the heady 3% or more consumer spending growth we saw in the middle of last year (after the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act was passed.)

Moreover, obstacles to consumer spending look like they will only increase from here and spending growth is expected to dip below 2% by 2020.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on May 17.

Key observations:

• Regional manufacturing data for May show a decent improvement, and initial jobless claims fell to a one-month low this week.

• The U.S. economic future depends on how U.S. consumers deal with the increased uncertainty of the China trade war.

• Real consumer spending growth is expected to rebound in the second quarter, but we do not see a return to the heady 3% or more consumer spending growth we saw in the middle of last year (shortly after the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act was passed).

Read my full report.

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U.S. Outlook: Why recent GDP growth doesn’t look sustainable

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Two signs in store window for sales - 50% and 70% - with reflection of shoppers faintly visible.

Perhaps the most convincing reason to be skeptical about continued growth at recent rates is the fact that business participation in the expansion is declining.

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U.S. Outlook: After weak growth, what’s next for 2016?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing fluctuation in trade balance of goods between January 2014 and May 2016

After slow growth in the first half of the year, what’s in store for real GDP in the quarters ahead?

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U.S. Outlook: U.S. growth has slowed considerably. Why?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing quarterly ups and downs of US GDP.

This is the third consecutive year the world’s largest economy would start off the year with dismal GDP growth.

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U.S. Outlook: Gearing up for the big week ahead

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
chart showing upward trend in S&P 500 stock price index.

An advanced estimate of first-quarter GDP and the April FOMC decision will be among the activities to watch next week.

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