All Posts Tagged: economic growth

U.S. Outlook: The curious case for panicked rate cuts

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Wait a minute. What’s the argument for cutting the Fed funds rate either 75 or 100 basis points before the end of the year, again? I have the feeling that markets blew right past that question on Wednesday, and simply equated the Federal Reserve leaning toward cutting interest rates with a massive amount of monetary stimulus. That is all it took and stocks and bonds were off to the races with no interest in looking back.

Federal Reserve building at dusk

Unless the Fed thinks the economy will be in recession in the next three to six months, and I don’t think a majority of FOMC members believe that today given their recent GDP and unemployment rate forecasts, the Fed might want to reserve some bullets for when they are staring a recession right in the face.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on June 21.

Key observations:

• The argument for aggressive Fed rate cuts this year are pretty thin, based on employment and housing data.
• Aggressive rate cuts now could trigger an asset price bubble down the road.
• The Fed should save some of its rate cuts for when a recession is an imminent threat.

Read my full report.

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Investment Insights: Trade winds weaken

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy

While U.S. and Chinese trade relations sour, concerns about other U.S. trade partners have grown, as officials attempt to shore up agreements with Canada and Mexico, and the European Union.

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U.S. Outlook: Can the U.S. consumer keep up the pace?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Farmers market scene as several adults look over baskets of red, yellow, and orange tomatoes, peppers, and other vegetables.

You could say the consumer has been the engine of U.S. economic growth lately.

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Philanthropy Awards spotlight: Remarks from Forest Whitaker

Jenny Flores
Posted by Jenny Flores
Corporate Social Responsibility
Forest Whitaker at the podium, speaking at the Philanthropy Awards

The programs I develop around young people aim to help communities that have been shattered by conflict and violence regain their capacity to rebound and to address their challenges by themselves.

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U.S. Outlook: Interest rates hit the floor

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing global bond yields are near record lows

Today’s low market rates suggest a weaker global economic outlook, looser monetary policy, and more deflationary pressures ahead.

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