All Posts Tagged: economy
When giants fight, folks get trampled. A prolonged and escalating U.S. trade war with China is now our baseline view and no longer a downside risk to our outlook.
The impact of the trade war escalation is clearly visible in our lowered forecasts for U.S. GDP growth, interest rates, and inflation. We have cut our near‐term consumer inflation forecasts as oil, energy, and metals prices plunge and the U.S. dollar strengthens on flight‐to‐safety capital flows.
For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on May 31.Key observations:
- Escalating U.S.-China trade war is now our base case and no longer just a risk.
- U.S. GDP growth forecast for 2019 has been cut to 2.3% from 2.5%.
- Our Fed rate cut forecast has been moved forward, and the Fed may lower rates as early as September.
Read my full report.Read More ›
The Treasury yield curve has moved deeper into inversion since last week’s FOMC meeting. And the Fed funds futures market has begun to price in not one, but two or more quarter‐point rate hikes before the end of 2020.Read More ›
Financial markets faltered last week over global economic growth concerns and a corresponding move in Treasury rates that left investors feeling anxious.Read More ›
After a strong start to the year, stock markets have been trading in a fairly flat range in anticipation of some driver that will push prices in either direction.Read More ›
With no visible signs of inflation, the Fed has “the luxury of being patient.” Scott Anderson deciphers what the Fed may do for the rest of 2019 in his U.S. Outlook.Read More ›