All Posts Tagged: economy

A 2020 Forecast Upgrade Despite December Payroll Miss

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by only 145k jobs in December, a slight undershoot from the consensus forecast of 160k and our own forecast of 170k. This is a sharp deterioration from November’s 256k job gain.

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U.S. Outlook: October Payrolls – Data Revisions Steal the Show

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

The U.S. labor market is slowing, just not as quickly as we all thought before the release of the October payrolls report. Despite the substantial headwinds of the GM strike and escalation of the trade war in September, U.S. nonfarm employment managed to increase a better than expected 128k jobs last month.

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Investment Insights: Delaying the inevitable

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy

The most recent rally in stocks seems to be stalling as tensions escalate between the U.S. and Iran, and as investors hold their collective breath in anticipation of President Trump’s meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping this weekend.

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U.S. Outlook: When giants fight

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

The impact of the trade war escalation is clearly visible in our lowered forecasts for U.S. GDP growth, interest rates and inflation. We have cut our near‐term consumer inflation forecasts as oil, energy, and metals prices plunge and the dollar strengthens on flight‐to‐safety capital flows.

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