All Posts Tagged: employment report

U.S. Outlook: A warning from the jobs report

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

The May U.S. jobs report gave us a taste of what’s ahead if trade war threats continue to escalate and tariffs continue to grow. Hiring faded across the board in May with just 75,000 net new jobs created in the U.S. last month. The U.S. economy also created 75,000 fewer jobs in March and April than previously reported.

This is not just a one-off hiccup in the data, but part of a broader more prolonged pattern of labor market softening.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on June 7.

Key observations:
  • Disappointing U.S. jobs data suggest consumer spending slowdown in the months ahead.
  • We are now expecting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in Sept after disappointing jobs growth in May.
  • The Fed funds futures market is currently pricing in a high probability (77%) of a rate cut at the July FOMC meeting but this bet appears pretty aggressive given what we know today.
  • At this point, policymakers should tread carefully. De-escalating the trade war with Mexico and a Fed rate cut are going to be needed to keep the U.S. expansion going.

Read my full report.

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U.S. Outlook: Job growth starts second quarter with a bang

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Line of job applicants

Should we celebrate this spring job growth spurt? Chief economist Scott Anderson believes we shouldn’t lose sight of the broader 2019 growth slowdown story.

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U.S. Outlook: Dark clouds on the horizon

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing projected slowdown in job growth in next few quarters

Financial volatility is on the rise and uncertainty is high enough to keep the FOMC in a holding pattern until the storm clouds dissipate.

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Instant Analysis: Employment report for March

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Carpenter varnishing a large board

The U.S. employment report for March was another piece of positive economic news.

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Instant Analysis: Employment report for June

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Attendees at a conference in front of large glass windows, the sun in the background.

Nothing in this report dissuades me that labor market progress continues — just not as fast as we would all like to see as the second quarter comes to a close. 

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