All Posts Tagged: employment

U.S. Outlook: The curious case for panicked rate cuts

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Wait a minute. What’s the argument for cutting the Fed funds rate either 75 or 100 basis points before the end of the year, again? I have the feeling that markets blew right past that question on Wednesday, and simply equated the Federal Reserve leaning toward cutting interest rates with a massive amount of monetary stimulus. That is all it took and stocks and bonds were off to the races with no interest in looking back.

Federal Reserve building at dusk

Unless the Fed thinks the economy will be in recession in the next three to six months, and I don’t think a majority of FOMC members believe that today given their recent GDP and unemployment rate forecasts, the Fed might want to reserve some bullets for when they are staring a recession right in the face.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on June 21.

Key observations:

• The argument for aggressive Fed rate cuts this year are pretty thin, based on employment and housing data.
• Aggressive rate cuts now could trigger an asset price bubble down the road.
• The Fed should save some of its rate cuts for when a recession is an imminent threat.

Read my full report.

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California Economic Outlook – April 2019

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
The lights of Los Angeles glow under a sunset sky

Our California Economic Outlook compares regions across the state. How did your region of the state shape-up in Q1 and what’s the forecast for the future?

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U.S. Outlook: The Fed thinks twice about raising rates again

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Close up of the Federal Reserve building with the eagle statue

With no visible signs of inflation, the Fed has “the luxury of being patient.” Scott Anderson deciphers what the Fed may do for the rest of 2019 in his U.S. Outlook.

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Investment Insights: Keep your chin up

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Stocks displayed on an iPad.

Both stocks and bonds entered a slump over the past few days as rising yields weighed on equity prices.

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U.S. Outlook: On the hunt for a better job

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Business man on Wall St. at top of escalator carrying folded newspapers

It is widely known that the U.S. economy is creating new jobs at a rapid pace. Since the expansion started, the economy has added nearly 20 million jobs.

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