All Posts Tagged: equities

U.S. Outlook: Dark clouds loom over the global economy

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Bad news about the global economy seems to be piling up.

Last week the OECD cut its 2019 global growth estimate to only 3.2% from 3.3% forecast just two months ago. I suspect that most economists will be getting out their pencils to lower global economic growth estimates for this year and next. Economic surprises have remained uniformly negative across most of the world through the middle of May, implying that economic indicators are still falling well short of economists’ diminishing expectations.

dark-clouds-manufacturing-outlook

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on May 24.

Key observations:

• Manufacturing segments in two-thirds of major economies either at threshold between expansion and contraction or in decline.
• U.S. stocks are vulnerable to protracted China trade war.
• Recent readings of both U.S. manufacturing and services sectors bode ill for future GDP growth.

Read the full report.

Read More ›

Investment Insights: A two-horse race

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy

After almost crossing the finish line, trade negotiations between the U.S. and China reached another hurdle over the weekend as President Trump tweeted that the U.S. would raise the current tariff on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods from 10% to 25% by the end of the week.

Read More ›

Investment Insights: The dichotomy of directions

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy

The Global Investment Management team has been concerned about the relative trends of equity and bond markets since the beginning of the year, following the complete reversal of the Federal Reserve’s rhetoric in three short months.

Read More ›

Investment Insights: Excerpts from our 2019 outlook

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy

There is greater uncertainty heading into 2019 than in many previous years.

Read More ›

U.S. Outlook: Dissecting the dots

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
View of a eagle statue on Federal Reserve building in DC

Just looking at the Fed’s median forecast gives one a false sense of precision about the future of U.S. interest rates.

Read More ›