All Posts Tagged: existing home sales

California Economic Outlook: Blowback

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

The Golden State’s outlook is actually less than golden. The trade war between the U.S. and China has negative implications for California, which would have the fifth-largest economy in the world if it were a country. Around half of U.S. trade with China currently passes through Los Angeles area ports.

port-of-long-beach-cranes

Tough tariffs

Agricultural exports from the state’s Central Valley could suffer because they are on the list of goods subject to retaliatory tariffs by China.

Indeed, a study from the University of California, Davis, estimates that higher tariffs may cost major U.S. fruit and nut industries $2.6 billion per year in exports to countries imposing higher tariffs, including China. In addition, Bay Area tech companies are also in the crosshairs. For example, higher tariffs mean higher component costs. That could ultimately push prices of devices higher and reduce demand.

Sputtering jobs engine

California’s job growth engine is not dead yet, but it is sputtering. Job growth year-on-year slipped below the national rate in December 2018, after exceeding U.S. growth for nearly seven years. Annual job growth in California has moderated for three consecutive years, and the slowdown is projected to continue through 2020.

For more insights, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the California Economic Outlook.

Key observations:
  • California’s unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in April 2019 from an all-time low of 4.1% in July 2018. It is expected to average 4.9% by 2020, the highest since 2016.
  • Job growth is forecast to moderate across all regions in 2019 and 2020 except for the Central Coast where some acceleration is expected in 2019. The slowest job growth is forecast in Southern California over both years.
  • California’s home price increases will moderate to more sustainable rates of around 2.0% over the next two years due to decelerating job growth, slowing economic activity, continued out-migration, and weak population growth.

Read my full report.

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U.S. Outlook: What’s the current health of the housing market?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
couple in foreground with toddler on man

Both new and existing home sales dropped sharply in April. So we thought now would be a good time to look at the health of the U.S. housing market.

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U.S. Outlook: Is the economy accelerating or slowing down?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing different leading indicators for economic performance.

It’s not only the stock market that’s throwing off more mixed signals and increased volatility these days.

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U.S. Outlook: No worries, mate — rebound continues

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing recent GDP readings, along with forecast for next several quarters.

It’s been another week of better readings on U.S. housing, initial jobless claims, and leading economic indicators.

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Numbers Count: Weekly mortgage data highlights

Wendy Cutrufelli
Mortgage Banking
man

Here’s my take on the key numbers on the housing market this week.

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