All Posts Tagged: Federal Reserve
U.S. economic doomsayers will be less boisterous after this week’s data. A robust May retail sales report and upwardly revised sales for March and April should remind investors and analysts there are still major sectors of the U.S. economy that are holding up quite well, despite the bond market’s doom and gloom and calls for imminent and substantial rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.
For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on June 14.Key observations:
- Solid job market and consumer confidence continue to drive gains in retail spending.
- Strength in May retail sales and upward revisions to the prior two months have prompted an increase in our second quarter GDP growth forecast.
- There will be weaker consumer spending and GDP growth ahead if the trade war with China continues to escalate.
Read my full report.Read More ›
Hiring faded across the board in May. This is not just a one-off hiccup in the data, but part of a broader more prolonged pattern of labor market softening.Read More ›
The impact of the trade war escalation is clearly visible in our lowered forecasts for U.S. GDP growth, interest rates and inflation. We have cut our near‐term consumer inflation forecasts as oil, energy, and metals prices plunge and the dollar strengthens on flight‐to‐safety capital flows.Read More ›
“Better than expected” is the expression that keeps coming to mind for investors as the first quarter earnings season continues to beat forecasts.Read More ›
The Global Investment Management team has been concerned about the relative trends of equity and bond markets since the beginning of the year, following the complete reversal of the Federal Reserve’s rhetoric in three short months.Read More ›