All Posts Tagged: FOMC

U.S. Outlook: Retail sales boost our Q2 GDP forecast

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

U.S. economic doomsayers will be less boisterous after this week’s data. A robust May retail sales report and upwardly revised sales for March and April should remind investors and analysts there are still major sectors of the U.S. economy that are holding up quite well, despite the bond market’s doom and gloom and calls for imminent and substantial rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.

Busy, crowded street scene in Times Square, NYC

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on June 14.

Key observations:
  • Solid job market and consumer confidence continue to drive gains in retail spending.
  • Strength in May retail sales and upward revisions to the prior two months have prompted an increase in our second quarter GDP growth forecast.
  • There will be weaker consumer spending and GDP growth ahead if the trade war with China continues to escalate.

Read my full report.

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U.S. Outlook: When giants fight

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

The impact of the trade war escalation is clearly visible in our lowered forecasts for U.S. GDP growth, interest rates and inflation. We have cut our near‐term consumer inflation forecasts as oil, energy, and metals prices plunge and the dollar strengthens on flight‐to‐safety capital flows.

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Instant Analysis: FOMC signals prolonged rate hike pause into 2020

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Federal Reserve building at dusk

The FOMC all but gave up their dreams of normalizing short-term interest rates, deciding to hold the Fed fund target rate between 2.25% and 2.50% at today’s FOMC meeting with 11 FOMC participants expecting the Fed funds rate to end 2019 at the same levels.  

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Investment Insights: Playing the waiting game

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy

Stocks pared gains on Tuesday as markets hesitated over when the U.S. and China will actually reach their long awaited trade deal before recovering on Wednesday after the Fed’s meeting.

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U.S. Outlook: The Fed thinks twice about raising rates again

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Close up of the Federal Reserve building with the eagle statue

With no visible signs of inflation, the Fed has “the luxury of being patient.” Scott Anderson deciphers what the Fed may do for the rest of 2019 in his U.S. Outlook.

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