All Posts Tagged: gas prices
U.S. Outlook: What’s behind the oil price plunge?
Chief Economist
Crude oil prices had been generally rising in 2018 before peaking at $76.24 on October 3.
Since then, there has been a sudden shift in underlying market dynamics. What’s behind the sharp change in trend?
For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Nov. 30.
Key observations:- Overall, we believe the increase in oil supply rather than a decrease in oil demand is the primary driver of lower oil prices today.
- The sudden, sharp, and sustained decline in oil prices immediately reduced the inflation expectations of bond investors.
- Investors are now expecting lower consumer inflation over the next five years compared to early October, largely as a result of the dramatic plunge in oil and other commodities prices.
- Bank of the West Economics expects West Texas Intermediate Crude to average $62.50 per barrel in the fourth quarter, and average just $51.50 per barrel in 2019.
U.S. Outlook: Will inflation come back to life?
Chief Economist
U.S. Outlook: Should we worry about the consumer?
Chief Economist
Despite weakness in January and February data, retail sales are still up a healthy 3.1% from a year ago.
Read More ›U.S. Outlook: Keep one eye on the fundamentals
Chief Economist
It’s important to remember that the stock market and the oil market are not the U.S. economy.
Read More ›U.S. Outlook: Dissecting FOMC intentions
Chief Economist
The Federal Reserve remained coy in its July statement about when to initiate the first Fed funds interest rate hike.
Read More ›
