All Posts Tagged: GDP forecast

U.S. Outlook: Retail sales boost our Q2 GDP forecast

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

U.S. economic doomsayers will be less boisterous after this week’s data. A robust May retail sales report and upwardly revised sales for March and April should remind investors and analysts there are still major sectors of the U.S. economy that are holding up quite well, despite the bond market’s doom and gloom and calls for imminent and substantial rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.

Busy, crowded street scene in Times Square, NYC

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on June 14.

Key observations:
  • Solid job market and consumer confidence continue to drive gains in retail spending.
  • Strength in May retail sales and upward revisions to the prior two months have prompted an increase in our second quarter GDP growth forecast.
  • There will be weaker consumer spending and GDP growth ahead if the trade war with China continues to escalate.

Read my full report.

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U.S. Outlook: What to expect from next week’s Q1 GDP release

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Close up on Wall St. street sign, with tourists enjoying the street in summer weather behind it.

What to expect from first quarter GDP growth? Scott Anderson offers an analysis in the U.S. Outlook.

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U.S. Outlook: Trimming our GDP forecast

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
National monuments and museums in Washington DC were closed during the U.S. governemnt shutdown in 2013.

How will the government shutdown impact our GDP forecast? Scott Anderson examines the data in his U.S. Outlook.

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U.S. Outlook: Headline GDP growth for Q4 comes in on the light side

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing quarterly GDP growth figures from 2015, with forecasts for 2018

U.S. GDP growth slowed to 2.6% in the fourth quarter, following a 3.2% annualized growth rate in the third quarter.

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U.S. Outlook: U.S. GDP rebounds to a respectable pace in Q2

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing quarterly GDP growth (actual and projected through next year)

The rebound was driven by a marked improvement in real consumer spending growth to a 2.8% annualized pace from a 1.9% pace in Q1.

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