All Posts Tagged: GDP growth

U.S. Outlook: A first quarter GDP head fake

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

The words “fake news” come to mind with this morning’s Q1 advance GDP release.Large container ship arriving in port.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported a blowout headline 3.2% annualized GDP growth rate in the first quarter of 2019, a solid improvement on the fourth quarter’s 2.2% growth performance. This is the best first-quarter GDP growth performance for the U.S. economy since 2015, breaking a string of three consecutive years of disappointment. On the surface, what’s not to like, right?

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on April 26.

Key observations:
  • Even on a year-ago basis, U.S. GDP growth has been impressive, finally accelerating to 3.2%.
  • This 12-month growth rate is right in line with the historical average for U.S. GDP going back to 1948, and well above the 2.1% average for the current economic cycle.
  • Business inventories increased by a whopping $128.4 billion in the first quarter and will need to be worked down in the quarters ahead.
  • We continue to forecast a sharp slowing in U.S. GDP growth in the second quarter to a 1.7% annualized growth rate, and our outlook for the second half of 2019 and 2020 remain unaltered by today’s upside GDP growth surprise.

Read my full report.

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U.S. Outlook: What to expect from next week’s Q1 GDP release

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Close up on Wall St. street sign, with tourists enjoying the street in summer weather behind it.

What to expect from first quarter GDP growth? Scott Anderson offers an analysis in the U.S. Outlook.

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U.S. Outlook: The 2018 U.S. GDP victory rings hollow

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Container ship

Fourth quarter GDP growth hits 2.6%, beating estimates. Find out why Scott Anderson isn’t joining in the celebration. Read U.S. Outlook.

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Instant Analysis: Q3 GDP sizzles

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
This is a photo of a crane above a city skyline.

The advance estimate of third quarter GDP growth exceeded nearly all expectations largely shaking off the negative impact of the fall hurricanes.

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U.S. Outlook: The hard vs. soft data conundrum revisited

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph comparing hard and soft data of US Economic Surprise Index

In this week’s report we show how truly unusual the current divergence between “soft” data surprises and the “hard” data surprises really is.

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