All Posts Tagged: GDP growth

U.S. Outlook: The 2018 U.S. GDP victory rings hollow

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Fourth quarter GDP growth beat economists’ expectations, coming in at 2.6% annualized, giving the Trump Container shipadministration a reason to celebrate four quarters of 3.0% plus growth, a new expansion record.

The administration sold the 2018 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act by promising 3.0%-plus GDP growth over the coming decade, and at least over the first four quarters since passage, the economy managed to hit the mark. Don’t expect a repeat performance.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on March 1.

Key observations:
  • The GDP growth lift from the fourth quarter of 2017 is only 0.6 percentage points of GDP, or just over $100 billion in added spending and production.
  • While year-on-year growth hit a new expansion high of 3.1% in the fourth quarter, sequential GDP growth peaked in the first quarter after passage of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act at 4.2%.
  • Since then, GDP growth has decelerated for two consecutive quarters to a much less heady 2.6% and our early estimate of Q1 2019 growth is only 1.5% annualized.
  • If realized, the first quarter of 2019 could be the slowest quarterly growth performance for the U.S. economy since the first quarter of 2016.

Read my full report.

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Instant Analysis: Q3 GDP sizzles

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
This is a photo of a crane above a city skyline.

The advance estimate of third quarter GDP growth exceeded nearly all expectations largely shaking off the negative impact of the fall hurricanes.

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U.S. Outlook: The hard vs. soft data conundrum revisited

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph comparing hard and soft data of US Economic Surprise Index

In this week’s report we show how truly unusual the current divergence between “soft” data surprises and the “hard” data surprises really is.

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U.S. Outlook: Solid GDP growth in Q3; what’s in store for Q4?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing percentage increase in export of total goods

A decent GDP growth performance for the United States should keep the FOMC on track for a December rate hike.

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U.S. Outlook: After weak growth, what’s next for 2016?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing fluctuation in trade balance of goods between January 2014 and May 2016

After slow growth in the first half of the year, what’s in store for real GDP in the quarters ahead?

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