All Posts Tagged: GDP

U.S. Outlook: When giants fight

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

When giants fight, folks get trampled. A prolonged and escalating U.S. trade war with China is now our baseline view and no longer a downside risk to our outlook.

The impact of the trade war escalation is clearly visible in our lowered forecasts for U.S. GDP growth, interest rates, and inflation. We have cut our near‐term consumer inflation forecasts as oil, energy, and metals prices plunge and the U.S. dollar strengthens on flight‐to‐safety capital flows.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on May 31.

Key observations:
  • Escalating U.S.-China trade war is now our base case and no longer just a risk.
  • U.S. GDP growth forecast for 2019 has been cut to 2.3% from 2.5%.
  • Our Fed rate cut forecast has been moved forward, and the Fed may lower rates as early as September.

Read my full report.

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U.S. Outlook: A first quarter GDP head fake

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Large container ship arriving in port.

The term “fake news” comes to mind for Scott Anderson when considering the headline 3.2% annualized GDP growth rate. Find out why in the U.S. Outlook.

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U.S. Outlook: What to expect from next week’s Q1 GDP release

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Close up on Wall St. street sign, with tourists enjoying the street in summer weather behind it.

What to expect from first quarter GDP growth? Scott Anderson offers an analysis in the U.S. Outlook.

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U.S. Outlook: Private inventories — A GDP growth wild card

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Aerial View Of Container port

Does business inventory buildup spell economic growth or future recession? Chief Economist Scott Anderson analyzes the data in the U.S. Outlook.

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U.S. Outlook: The 2018 U.S. GDP victory rings hollow

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Container ship

Fourth quarter GDP growth hits 2.6%, beating estimates. Find out why Scott Anderson isn’t joining in the celebration. Read U.S. Outlook.

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