All Posts Tagged: global trade

U.S. Outlook: The pause that refreshes, or a sign of dark days ahead?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

The first quarter economic slowdown is coming into focus as recent economic indicators confirm a continuing U.S. Two girls working in a factoryand global manufacturing slowdown that appears to be intensifying in February. The preliminary Markit Manufacturing PMIs for February fell into contraction territory in the Japanese and the Eurozone economies and revealed softening growth in the U.S. manufacturing sector as well.

Some of the drop in the PMI is likely a response to uncertainties around U.S.- China trade negotiations and the possibility of a hard Brexit from the Eurozone. Manufacturers are reporting that the uncertainty is causing them to delay orders and curtail near-term business investment plans.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Feb. 22.

Key observations:
  • Nondefense capital-goods orders for the United States dropped another 0.7% in December and have declined in four of the last five months.
  • We expect the initial release on fourth quarter U.S. GDP growth will show that GDP growth slowed to around 2.2% annualized from 3.4% in the third quarter.
  • We forecast U.S. GDP growth at a modest 1.5% annual rate in Q1.

Read my full report.

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Investment Insights: Living up to (earnings) expectations

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Male worker in a large China textile shop, writing on a pad while surrounded by hundreds of brightly colored bolts of fabric.

After a week-long volatility binge, financial markets seem to be enjoying renewed vigor on the back of the third-quarter earnings season and some positive economic data.

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Investment Insights: Trade war! What is it good for?

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
A crowded street with a large group of pedestrians in China.

A potential trade war between the U.S. and China sparked a selloff in global stock markets last week as investors attempted to comprehend the impacts of a tit-for-tat battle in international trade.

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Investment Insights: Cohn clears out

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy
Aerial view of long rows of aluminum ingots beside a sunny harbor.

Reports of the reasons for Cohn’s departure centered on the chief economic advisor’s direct opposition to the president’s plan to impose tariffs on imported goods such as aluminum and steel.

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U.S. Outlook: Trade fears mount

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Large bundle of steel rods being lifted via crane off a stack of many bundled rods.

More signs emerged this week that the Goldilocks view of the U.S. economic outlook could be in for a serious challenge in the weeks ahead.

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