All Posts Tagged: government shutdown
Here we are at day 35 of the federal government shutdown and economic releases are getting scarce. But next week should be an interesting one. We get January employment data from both ADP and the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
We are expecting some deceleration in job growth from December’s blistering 312K pace, but our forecasts remain somewhat above the consensus expectations.
For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Jan. 25.Key observations:
- The drop in initial jobless claims in January to a new 49- year low is both unexpected during a month’s long federal government shutdown and a testament to the residual strength of the U.S. expansion.
- We are forecasting a nonfarm payroll gain of 175K jobs in January, with the unemployment rate dropping to 3.8% and healthy monthly average hourly earnings growth of 0.3%.
- Job growth could remain strong enough in the first half of 2019 to justify another rate hike by June.
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How will the government shutdown impact our GDP forecast? Scott Anderson examines the data in his U.S. Outlook.Read More ›
President Trump seems to be ready for a government shutdown if the newest spending bill does not include funds for the border wall.Read More ›
As we learned from the government shutdown of 2013, financial hardship can strike at any time. Use these 6 tips to deal with an unexpected blow to your household income.Read More ›
The impact of the government shutdown dominates this week’s U.S. Outlook Report. What could it mean for the markets and your finances? Below is a brief summary followed by a link to the full report, delivered on Oct. 18, 2013. Key observations: We estimate that the government shutdown has cut a little over 0.2 percentage […]Read More ›