All Posts Tagged: Grexit

U.S. Outlook: Financial volatility takes center stage

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

The drama unfolding in Greece and China is dominating the headlines and has relegated the discussion of Fed liftoff to the back pages of the newspaper.

Graph showing dramatic rises and falls in Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index in recent years.We are holding our fire on baseline GDP growth downgrades in both China and the Eurozone until we see more evidence of economic damage.

For more on this and other developments this week, see my full report. Highlights are outlined below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook report, delivered on July 10.

Key observations:
  • China has seen stock price bubbles and collapses like this before and survived largely intact.
  • Our growth outlook for the Eurozone remains at 1.5% for 2015.
  • Financial contagion from Greece into the Eurozone appears fairly well contained so far, though I don’t think a full Grexit has been priced in by the markets, either.
  • We do not expect a measurable negative impact on the U.S. economic outlook from the financial events that have occurred in Europe and China so far.
Click here to read my full report. Read More ›