All Posts Tagged: income growth
The U.S. consumer is often the most important piece of our economic puzzle, making the difference between a solid economic expansion and a mediocre one.
For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on Nov. 9.Key observations:
- Since 1947 the consumer spending share of GDP has ranged from a low 58.9% in 1967 to 68.5% in 2011. The 2017 share was just below the 2011 all-time high at 68.4%.
- Since May the gap between consumer spending growth and income growth has widened over time.
- The consumer savings rate has declined for seven straight months since reaching 7.4% in February.
- Our forecast is for annualized real consumer spending growth to decelerate from the current white-hot pace of 4.0% to 2.6% in the fourth quarter.
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Where did all the shoppers go? Coming off a heady fourth quarter when consumers couldn’t find an item they didn’t want to purchase, the consumer appeared to be knocked‐out in the first quarter.Read More ›
The retail sales data through October show a consumer who is ready and willing to spend this holiday season.Read More ›
Average personal income growth for all states was up 4.4% in 2015, with the Western and Southeastern states showing the strongest percentage gains in personal income.Read More ›
Looked at in a vacuum, the recent declines in retail sales could herald an impending recession, but that’s not our forecast.Read More ›