All Posts Tagged: industrial production

U.S. Outlook: Mixed signals and caution

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

What are the near-term prospects for the U.S. economy? Is the glass half-full or half-empty? It’s a tough call.

Right now both answers probably are correct. We believe the U.S. economy will grow at around 1.7% annualized in the second quarter.

This is significantly lower than the first quarter’s 3.2% pace, but still slightly above the U.S. economy’s potential growth rate of around 1.6%. Indeed, in many respects, the U.S. economic expansion continues to trundle along, with few signs of abating.

Real consumer spending growth is expected to rebound to a respectable 2.6% annualized this quarter, but we do not see a return to the heady 3% or more consumer spending growth we saw in the middle of last year (after the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act was passed.)

Moreover, obstacles to consumer spending look like they will only increase from here and spending growth is expected to dip below 2% by 2020.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on May 17.

Key observations:

• Regional manufacturing data for May show a decent improvement, and initial jobless claims fell to a one-month low this week.

• The U.S. economic future depends on how U.S. consumers deal with the increased uncertainty of the China trade war.

• Real consumer spending growth is expected to rebound in the second quarter, but we do not see a return to the heady 3% or more consumer spending growth we saw in the middle of last year (shortly after the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act was passed).

Read my full report.

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U.S. Outlook: Manufacturing leading the way lower

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
CNC Laser cutting of metal, modern industrial technology.

Does a weakening manufacturing sector hint at a coming economic slowdown? Find out in the U.S. Outlook.

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U.S. Outlook: Industrial production ends 2017 on a high note

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
young man in hardhat checking a reading at a large industrial workstation.

December industrial production handily beat consensus expectations, increasing 0.9% in December.

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U.S. Outlook: Soothing signs of economic growth

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph showing recent rise in industrial production

New economic data and a tentative stabilization in crude oil prices provide more evidence that economic contraction in the near term is unlikely.

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U.S. Outlook: Replacing liftoff with gradual levitation

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Graph laying out the interest rate forecasts into next year.

While I still believe the FOMC will raise interest rates for the first time in December 2015, I expect long pauses before each successive move upward.

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