All Posts Tagged: inflation

U.S. Outlook: When giants fight

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

When giants fight, folks get trampled. A prolonged and escalating U.S. trade war with China is now our baseline view and no longer a downside risk to our outlook.

The impact of the trade war escalation is clearly visible in our lowered forecasts for U.S. GDP growth, interest rates, and inflation. We have cut our near‐term consumer inflation forecasts as oil, energy, and metals prices plunge and the U.S. dollar strengthens on flight‐to‐safety capital flows.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on May 31.

Key observations:
  • Escalating U.S.-China trade war is now our base case and no longer just a risk.
  • U.S. GDP growth forecast for 2019 has been cut to 2.3% from 2.5%.
  • Our Fed rate cut forecast has been moved forward, and the Fed may lower rates as early as September.

Read my full report.

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U.S. Outlook: Inflation pressures moderate, but for how long?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Candlestick chart

Could recent increases in wage inflation be an early harbinger of consumer inflation in the not too distant future? Read more in Scott Anderson’s U.S. Outlook.

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Instant Analysis: December FOMC Minutes

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
A wide-angle photo of the Federal Reserve.

Despite the quarter point Fed funds rate hike that occurred at the end of the December FOMC Meeting, the minutes of that meeting reveal the dovish tilt that was already beginning to influence the FOMC’s view of the likely extent and timing of further interest rate hikes.

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Instant Analysis: FOMC Decision for December

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Winter shot of Federal Reserve building through leafless trees.

The outcome of the December FOMC meeting was what we have been forecasting.

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U.S. Outlook: What’s behind the oil price plunge?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Large, very clean refinery at dawn. No human activity is visible.

Crude oil prices had been generally rising in 2018 before peaking at $76.24 on October 3.

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