All Posts Tagged: interest rates

U.S. Outlook: Retail sales boost our Q2 GDP forecast

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

U.S. economic doomsayers will be less boisterous after this week’s data. A robust May retail sales report and upwardly revised sales for March and April should remind investors and analysts there are still major sectors of the U.S. economy that are holding up quite well, despite the bond market’s doom and gloom and calls for imminent and substantial rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.

Busy, crowded street scene in Times Square, NYC

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on June 14.

Key observations:
  • Solid job market and consumer confidence continue to drive gains in retail spending.
  • Strength in May retail sales and upward revisions to the prior two months have prompted an increase in our second quarter GDP growth forecast.
  • There will be weaker consumer spending and GDP growth ahead if the trade war with China continues to escalate.

Read my full report.

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Investment Insights: Feeling the squeeze

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy

Stocks continue to recover from a distressing May on increasing dovishness from central bankers and signs of stimulus in China, but tariffs remain a mixed bag. United Technologies and Raytheon have agreed to a merger valued at roughly $90 billion that will create the second-largest U.S. defense-aerospace company after Boeing. Investors apparently aren’t thrilled with the prospect of the combined business as both companies faced notable losses yesterday.

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Investment Insights: You can fight the Fed

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy

Financial markets are breathing a momentary sigh of relief after one of the biggest negative months in recent memory for stocks.

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U.S. Outlook: When giants fight

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

The impact of the trade war escalation is clearly visible in our lowered forecasts for U.S. GDP growth, interest rates and inflation. We have cut our near‐term consumer inflation forecasts as oil, energy, and metals prices plunge and the dollar strengthens on flight‐to‐safety capital flows.

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Investment Insights: Reaching the endgame

Wade Balliet
Posted by Wade Balliet
Investment Strategy

“Better than expected” is the expression that keeps coming to mind for investors as the first quarter earnings season continues to beat forecasts.

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