All Posts Tagged: job growth

California Economic Outlook Report – December 2020

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

California’s labor market recovery is lagging the nation as job losses in pandemic impacted industries remain high and new business restrictions and stay at home orders begin to bite.

After six consecutive months of job increases through October, employment in California is still 8.4% or 1.47 million jobs below the February peak.

California employment is forecast to decrease 7.1% in 2020 and rebound 1.5% in 2021.

California’s economic downturn would have been much worse without the unprecedented fiscal support from federal and state governments and aggressive monetary action from the Federal Reserve that helped loosen financial conditions and keep California consumers and businesses solvent despite unprecedented sales declines and job loss.

We assume additional substantial fiscal support from the Federal government will be needed and delivered by Congress in late 2020 and/or early 2021 to achieve this modest job growth across the state of California in 2021.

California’s unemployment rate declined to 9.3% in October from 16.4% in May, but remains the fourth highest among states in the nation. Further declines in California’s unemployment rate in 2021 will come much slower than they did this year. The state’s unemployment rate is expected to remain elevated and average 10.2% in 2020 and 8.9% next year, well above the U.S. unemployment rate of 8.1% in 2020 and 6.6% in 2021.

Solid housing demand, record low mortgage rates, and slim new and existing home inventories have turbo charged California’s housing market recovery since the spring decline with existing home sales increasing 19.9% from a year earlier in October. Housing starts are forecast to increase a solid 12.2% in 2021 on firming demand as the pandemic wanes and job growth returns.

California home prices are forecast to rise a robust 10.4% this year – primarily due to a shortage of homes for sale – and moderate to 6.1% in 2021 and 4.0% in 2020 as homebuilders respond to stronger demand by putting up more homes to alleviate the inventory shortfall.

To learn more, check out the California Economic Outlook December 2020.

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V-Shaped Employment Recovery Comes to an End

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

The November employment report wasn’t great, revealing a sharp deceleration in job creation from October’s pace, but it could have been much worse, given the rising coronavirus case counts and renewed business shutdowns rolling once again across many regions, and the delay in additional relief from the Federal government. 

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Employment Growth Decelerates In July

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

U.S. non-farm payroll growth in July beat consensus expectations, rising by 1.76 million jobs compared to expectations for 1.48 million.  However, this was a sharp deceleration from June’s 4.79 million job gain and May’s 2.725 million increase. This is likely to be the best jobs report we are likely to see for a while and probably exaggerates the health of the U.S. labor market today.

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California Outlook Report – June 2020

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

California’s job growth engine has come to a screeching halt like an automatic car transmission that suddenly gets thrown into reverse. We are forecasting the deepest U.S. and global recession since the Great Depression and California’s economy will not be spared from the pandemic’s economic and financial damage.

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U.S. Outlook: Is The Aging Workforce Curbing Wage Growth?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
median-weekly-earnings-by-age-group

Wages for older workers grew a whopping 10.4 percentage points faster in 1991 than in the current economic expansion.

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