All Posts Tagged: jobless claims

Evidence of a July U.S. Slowdown Emerging

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Last week we wrote about dark clouds building on the economic horizon as COVID-19 cases have surged in recent weeks.

This week more evidence emerged that the spike in virus cases is indeed sucking the oxygen out of the robust economic recovery we have seen over the past two and a half months.

So far, we can point to a pullback in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in July, a below consensus improvement in the preliminary Markit PMI indexes for July with a service sector still in contraction territory, as well as measurable deterioration in more timely daily data on OpenTable restaurant reservations, and TSA checkpoint travelers.

But perhaps the best evidence to date that an economic slowdown is underway is the larger than expected jump in initial jobless claims for the week of July 18th.

To learn more about the signs of slowdown emerging in the U.S. economy, and what that means for the labor market outlook, check out this week’s U.S. Outlook Report.

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A Reopening Rebound in Q3 – But Then What?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

The widespread closure of nonessential businesses has already caused massive dislocation in the U.S. labor market and we are bracing for a sharp decline in real GDP in the second quarter.

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California Outlook Report – June 2020

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

California’s job growth engine has come to a screeching halt like an automatic car transmission that suddenly gets thrown into reverse. We are forecasting the deepest U.S. and global recession since the Great Depression and California’s economy will not be spared from the pandemic’s economic and financial damage.

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U.S. Outlook: Will consumers resurface in the second quarter?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

The Treasury yield curve has moved deeper into inversion since last week’s FOMC meeting. And the Fed funds futures market has begun to price in not one, but two or more quarter‐point rate hikes before the end of 2020.

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U.S. Outlook: Moderate job growth continues in January

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Busy, crowded street scene in Times Square, NYC

Will moderate growth continue? Scott Anderson analyzes the economic data in this week’s U.S. Outlook.

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