All Posts Tagged: jobs

U.S. Outlook: Will consumers save the day?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

I’m skeptical that U.S. consumers can keep the slowdown, which is centered in manufacturing and business investment, from seeping into other corners of the economy.

U.S. consumers won’t be able to keep spending at a growth rate of more than 3% in the quarters ahead.  We forecast real consumer spending at just below 2% in the second half of 2019 and slipping well below 2% next year, as the risks from the global slowdown, trade wars, tighter financial conditions, and fading fiscal stimulus continue to mount.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on June 28.

Key observations:
  • We can’t count on the U.S. consumer to keep spending at a growth rate of more than 3%
  • Monthly job growth will continue to slow in the quarters ahead
  • Household balance sheets are fine now but may weaken as home price growth slows
  • Average hourly earnings growth remains below real consumer spending growth rates

Read my full report.

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U.S. Outlook: Don’t let the headline fool you; job engine is intact

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Business people on a break in a glass covered space.

Hurricane Florence muddied the waters of the September payroll report.

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U.S. Outlook: On the hunt for a better job

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Business man on Wall St. at top of escalator carrying folded newspapers

It is widely known that the U.S. economy is creating new jobs at a rapid pace. Since the expansion started, the economy has added nearly 20 million jobs.

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U.S. Outlook: Economy keeps cranking out new jobs

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Young professionals in coworking space.

The August employment report looks pretty sweet on the surface.

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U.S. Outlook: Job growth cools in July

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Sun-drenched shot of workers hurrying across a bridge at the start of the workday.

Despite the miss on the headline job growth last month, it is impossible to describe the labor market as soft.

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