All Posts Tagged: jobs

Evidence of a July U.S. Slowdown Emerging

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Last week we wrote about dark clouds building on the economic horizon as COVID-19 cases have surged in recent weeks.

This week more evidence emerged that the spike in virus cases is indeed sucking the oxygen out of the robust economic recovery we have seen over the past two and a half months.

So far, we can point to a pullback in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in July, a below consensus improvement in the preliminary Markit PMI indexes for July with a service sector still in contraction territory, as well as measurable deterioration in more timely daily data on OpenTable restaurant reservations, and TSA checkpoint travelers.

But perhaps the best evidence to date that an economic slowdown is underway is the larger than expected jump in initial jobless claims for the week of July 18th.

To learn more about the signs of slowdown emerging in the U.S. economy, and what that means for the labor market outlook, check out this week’s U.S. Outlook Report.

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Reopening Brings Back Millions of Jobs

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

The June employment report came in on the hot side, beating most economists’ forecasts. The U.S. economy added another 4.8 million jobs in June on top of an upwardly revised 2.699 million jobs created in May. The better than expected job gains were likely driven by the reopening of big states like California that didn’t really begin opening up until late May and early June. 

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Labor Market Shows Signs of Life in May

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

The May Employment Report released this morning from the Bureau of Labor Statistics captured more of the economic reopening than we expected, allowing for a surprising 2.51 million gain in nonfarm payrolls and a drop in the unemployment rate to 13.3% from 14.7% in April.

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Is the Rebound in Consumer Confidence Sustainable?

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

Consumer confidence declined sharply in March and April as it became necessary for states across the country to issue stay-at-home orders in an effort to limit the spread of COVID-19.

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Still in Freefall and Looking For a Way Out

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

We are still in the freefall stage of the economic shock brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic and will likely remain in this stage at least through the second quarter.

Against this backdrop U.S. equity markets have been downright ebullient over the last month, looking forward to business reopenings and celebrating the flattening of the curve of new virus cases.

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