All Posts Tagged: labor force
U.S. Outlook: Why 3.0% GDP growth looks like a long shot
Chief Economist
President Trump talks about returning the United States to 3.0% GDP growth or better, and it’s baked into his FY 2018 budget plan to reach that milestone by 2021.
Many mainstream economists, including myself, believe such a strong growth rate over the medium term is highly unlikely.
For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on June 9.
Key observations:- GDP growth in the current expansion has averaged a modest 1.8% per year, the lowest expansion growth rate in the postwar period.
- Nonfarm productivity growth defined as real output per hour worked was 0.0% at an annual rate in the first quarter.
- The labor force growth rate over the past 12 months is a modest 0.8%.
- The Federal Reserve estimates U.S. potential GDP growth today at around 1.6% per year, and that number is likely to slip further without a surge in productivity in the years ahead.
Instant Analysis: July FOMC statement
Chief Economist
Quick thoughts on May’s U.S. payroll report
Chief Economist
Instant Analysis: Employment report for September
Chief Economist
You can almost hear the sigh of relief as a strong jobs report eased concerns about a sputtering global economy.
Read More ›Instant Analysis: August jobs report disappoints
Chief Economist
There’s reason to look at this disappointing Labor Department report with a fair amount of skepticism.
Read More ›
