All Posts Tagged: labor force

U.S. Outlook: Why 3.0% GDP growth looks like a long shot

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist

President Trump talks about returning the United States to 3.0% GDP growth or better, and it’s baked into his FY 2018 budget plan to reach that milestone by 2021.

Graph showing recent dip in labor force growth.Many mainstream economists, including myself, believe such a strong growth rate over the medium term is highly unlikely.

For more on this, see highlights of my report below, followed by a link to the full U.S. Outlook, delivered on June 9.

Key observations:
  • GDP growth in the current expansion has averaged a modest 1.8% per year, the lowest expansion growth rate in the postwar period.
  • Nonfarm productivity growth defined as real output per hour worked was 0.0% at an annual rate in the first quarter.
  • The labor force growth rate over the past 12 months is a modest 0.8%.
  • The Federal Reserve estimates U.S. potential GDP growth today at around 1.6% per year, and that number is likely to slip further without a surge in productivity in the years ahead.
Click here to read my full report. Read More ›

Instant Analysis: July FOMC statement

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Closeup of pillars on exterior of Federal Reserve building

I see no reason to change my call for a September rate hike at this time. 

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Quick thoughts on May’s U.S. payroll report

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Commuters on a sunny day walking across a bridge toward a city center on their way to work.

Job growth roared back to life in May.

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Instant Analysis: Employment report for September

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Smiling African American man shaking hands with another man in a bright white office setting.

You can almost hear the sigh of relief as a strong jobs report eased concerns about a sputtering global economy.

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Instant Analysis: August jobs report disappoints

Scott Anderson
Chief Economist
Employees analyzing data in a business environment

There’s reason to look at this disappointing Labor Department report with a fair amount of skepticism.

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